Google shares scream, "Opportunity!"
As I scan the market, an opportunity makes itself clear, compelling, and available – Google/GOOG. I believe Google/GOOG to be that rara avis type of opportunity: the next 5 to 10 years belong to Google. And if you wonder why, all you need do is explain their acquisition of "Keyhole"...
Visit their homepage (http://www.google.com). Where are the Flash or Shockwave animations? In fact, the page is pretty... spare. Their objective is to get the viewer off the website ASAP. (That little time ticker that displays the length of time needed for each search result is as much for them as it is for us; perhaps more so.) Their desire to index the world is expensive, but worth every penny to realize their vision. Imagine a library's card catalogue (which is based on the Dewey decimal system); now update that card catalogue to the digital age. The digital 'card catalogue' will have sponsored ads... as will the 'books' themselves! Make money? Google will mint money. And this indexing is but one facet of their strategy.
Brilliant, absolutely brilliant. Of course, execution will have to enter the picture, but, so far, they have executed their vision and strategy with precision, with perfection.
There always are sticky points, with the current worry being the end of the ‘lockup’ on 14 February, and the resultant near doubling of float, etc. These are valid and important arguments, but not critical — at least not for a long while. (Remember to always plot a given stock within its continuum, its lifecycle: which items are critical at the varying stages?) One item to keep in mind is that Wall St knows of the lockup expiry, and the various players already have acted on this ‘news’.
Items such as lockup expirations are merely one aspect of the bigger picture of a stock within its continuum, which is itself an aspect of what transpires at the company, which in turn is a function of the markets, which in turn is a function of geo-politics, etc. So to place a reductive filter of only one item on a smaller component in such a larger picture... Ho-hum; such limited perceptions create the type of opportunities investors seek. Including me.
For now, consider the company and its stock. While Google, the company, does its 'thing', GOOG shares bounce about like a pinball. The topology, although periodically rocky, is generally uphill. (There will be declines, so factor them into your purchase patterns. In fact, it would not surprise me to see the shares stumble to ~$160 or lower in the coming days and weeks, but such a decline would represent a welcome opportunity to buy.)
In the end, what Microsoft/MSFT achieved (from 1986-2000) and Cisco/CSCO bettered (1990-2000), Google/GOOG will surpass. The rise in GOOG shares from the IPO of ~$100 to $200 is nothing compared to what future years will bring. I hate to state it in this fashion, but Google/GOOG is a one-decision opportunity for me. Why layer complexity on top of elegance?
BTW, the argument in favor of Google/GOOG is similar to that of other stock market winners such as eBay/EBAY, Johnson & Johnson/JNJ, Starbucks/SBUX, Whole Foods Markets/WFMI, and a raft of other up&comers (such as Cheesecake Factory/CAKE). Market leaders tend to continue their winning ways for years -- even decades. Which is why I select from market leaders for my portfolio winners.
Visit their homepage (http://www.google.com). Where are the Flash or Shockwave animations? In fact, the page is pretty... spare. Their objective is to get the viewer off the website ASAP. (That little time ticker that displays the length of time needed for each search result is as much for them as it is for us; perhaps more so.) Their desire to index the world is expensive, but worth every penny to realize their vision. Imagine a library's card catalogue (which is based on the Dewey decimal system); now update that card catalogue to the digital age. The digital 'card catalogue' will have sponsored ads... as will the 'books' themselves! Make money? Google will mint money. And this indexing is but one facet of their strategy.
Brilliant, absolutely brilliant. Of course, execution will have to enter the picture, but, so far, they have executed their vision and strategy with precision, with perfection.
There always are sticky points, with the current worry being the end of the ‘lockup’ on 14 February, and the resultant near doubling of float, etc. These are valid and important arguments, but not critical — at least not for a long while. (Remember to always plot a given stock within its continuum, its lifecycle: which items are critical at the varying stages?) One item to keep in mind is that Wall St knows of the lockup expiry, and the various players already have acted on this ‘news’.
Items such as lockup expirations are merely one aspect of the bigger picture of a stock within its continuum, which is itself an aspect of what transpires at the company, which in turn is a function of the markets, which in turn is a function of geo-politics, etc. So to place a reductive filter of only one item on a smaller component in such a larger picture... Ho-hum; such limited perceptions create the type of opportunities investors seek. Including me.
For now, consider the company and its stock. While Google, the company, does its 'thing', GOOG shares bounce about like a pinball. The topology, although periodically rocky, is generally uphill. (There will be declines, so factor them into your purchase patterns. In fact, it would not surprise me to see the shares stumble to ~$160 or lower in the coming days and weeks, but such a decline would represent a welcome opportunity to buy.)
In the end, what Microsoft/MSFT achieved (from 1986-2000) and Cisco/CSCO bettered (1990-2000), Google/GOOG will surpass. The rise in GOOG shares from the IPO of ~$100 to $200 is nothing compared to what future years will bring. I hate to state it in this fashion, but Google/GOOG is a one-decision opportunity for me. Why layer complexity on top of elegance?
BTW, the argument in favor of Google/GOOG is similar to that of other stock market winners such as eBay/EBAY, Johnson & Johnson/JNJ, Starbucks/SBUX, Whole Foods Markets/WFMI, and a raft of other up&comers (such as Cheesecake Factory/CAKE). Market leaders tend to continue their winning ways for years -- even decades. Which is why I select from market leaders for my portfolio winners.
posted by David M Gordon | 1:04 AM
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