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The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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Location: Summerlin, Nevada, United States

A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

14 March 2005

The chickens come home to roost

So while the market's former upside leaders now become leaders to the downside, perhaps tugging down, down, down the markets in general (although a bounce from prices lower than Friday's close could occur any day), the consumer non-durables -- the chicken cyclicals -- suddenly come to the fore, and assume market leadership. (And not so suddenly in the case of some.) For example:

Hershey/HSY broke out above a 6 year base ~15 months ago. The share price has since roared ahead from $40 to $65. How about that action for a stolid blue chip ...?


Johnson & Johnson/JNJ sneaks out from a base of three years to a new all time high. JNJ could pull back because the required explosive volume has been absent on this move...


Walgreens/WAG has risen powerfully the past 3 or 4 months, with excellent volume. The share price now is within spitting distance of its all time high ($45.75) set 4 1/2 years ago. And all this for a drug store.


How about Urban Outfitters/URBN? The company appears expensive on fundamentals and valuation measures. The company, however, repeatedly reports phenomenal numbers. And never forget: good stocks almost always are expensive, lousy stocks tend to be cheap. And the power and duration of the rocket ship ride this stock has enjoyed might cause investors to fret all the more.


And, finally, Men's Wearhouse/MW. This company's shares only recently broke above its all time ($36.75) set ~6 1/2 years ago. Oh yeah, and with explosive volume...


There are other examples, American Eagle/AEOS, bebe Stores/BEBE, Cheesecake Factory/CAKE, and even Gottschalks/GOT. It is notable that select retailers suddenly perk up. But then, as a group, the retailers are the chicken cyclicals.

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