Percolating along

Another long term winner, leader, and favored investment is Starbucks/SBUX.One reason for this reality is that this company has changed the way we live. (Applying the Pareto Principle to this concept, arguably 80% of the leaders materially change the way we live our lives, whereas only 20% - at best - of the non-leaders do so.)

Some people detest Starbucks for defacing the landscape. I disagree. I recall arriving in Canterbury, England, all set to relive my memories of Chaucer when I discovered a Starbucks right next to the main entrance; moreover, it was a part of the cathredal's walls! It was, however, as much a part of the walls as the cathedral itself; bringing life to the cathredal, in turn making it more than a museum piece. We sat there for hours talking; nursing our coffee and pastries.

You would think that this company has saturated the planet with outlets, and thus its rapid growth is behind it. Perhaps so. But executives at this company do not suffer from a failure of imagination (or derring-do). For example, the company opens new 'stores' (like the one in Canterbury) that challenge certain shibboleths, the company's creation of the Frappucino (and its derivatives), and the new venture (still in beta-mode) in which you can sample, download, and then burn (rip?) CDs in the stores. Etc.

The stock showed signs of tiring, but that enervation proved ephemeral...

[click to enlarge]

Look at the delineated trend line - it proves the maxim of once support, now resistance. Remember, trend lines are drawn to find their points of failure -- otherwise they are not predictive, merely reactive (drawn after the data points are in).

In addition, this chart shows again the non-reliability of charting. SBUX broke down beneath its 200 day sma in early-April. I saw next support at $42-40... but it made it to only $44.57 before reversing hard. This type of action is a clue: the failure to achieve - and overshoot - objectives.

Please do not moan that you "missed the boat." The shares declined from $65 to $45, and now are ~$52, and at resistance (which I do not expect to be much more than a speed bump). So the shares have rallied ~$7 from the low, but still are ~$12 from the high. Thus, no moaning allowed. And anyway, I told you so.