A statement of purpose...
Despite its self-aggrandizing nature, I perceive myself to be the “original Google bull”. (During moments of weakness, I consider highlighting this fact on the blog’s frontis). Whereas all other 'analysts' repeatedly bare their (analytical) claws, I loudly, repeatedly, and clearly propound the case for Google/GOOG -- and have done so for months before its IPO. "Buy!", "much higher prices and valuations ahead", and "a singular opportunity". My perception re the opportunity that Google/GOOG manifests has yet to lessen or change in any manner.
So it surprises me when I receive messages such as the following,
"I know that the market is not static and that changes can occur quickly. About 10 days ago you seemed exhuberant about GOOG; now you seem to saying that the sky may fall soon. What gives?"
There are two likely answers for this misperception...
1) The reader has visited this blog for only the past 10 days -- which is altogether possible with the new visitors each day brings.
2) Any reader's option to confuse my wild-eyed bullishness for the long term with the need to rein in the overwhelming bullishness that then was occurring in the short term . (It was becoming a tad crowded there for a while, what with all those suddenly converted bulls!)
It never ceases to amaze me that most investors require certainty and validation; however, I do not. Let's face facts: for most investors, a rising price serves as ratification of their analysis, so they act late. For example, why are most investors seemingly congenitally unable to see what occurs in the chart action of AAPL? What is it they require before they finally act? (Yes, I know, a move above $65, which translates as their finally buying at ~$70. Hmm, price as both value and signifier; interesting but potentially misguided.)
My extreme bullishness re Google/GOOG as a "singular opportunity" remains. As an investor, however, I acknowledge that some moments to buy -- expressed as a function of time, not price -- are better than others. I recognize that different constituencies gain primacy at various moments within any stock's life cycle; Google/GOOG, singular opportunity thought it might be, is no different. And at this moment, the constituency that has primacy are traders, especially momentum traders. So I place GOOG shares -- not the company -- within the context of this reality; knowing that this part of its lifecycle, its moment in the sun, has a different set of realities that constitute value and opportunity. In fact, I 'warned' ~2 weeks ago that GOOG would likely trace out a short term base between $300 and $250 (this anticipated low can be amended to $265); not a bad 'call' -- so far. Of course, the earnings news to be released on 21 July, 4 weeks from tomorrow, should prove notable. Has Wall St managed to 'catch up' with Google's - the company, not the shares - powerful set of dynamics? (Unlikely...) It would not surprise me were GOOG shares to continue its short term base for the next 3-4 weeks while the market digests the previous price rally so as not to cause indigestion. The coming earnings report might provide another positive surprise, and if that occurs, then watch for a sudden, material upward move in price -- well above $300. We shall see.
Even though I say so myself, the archives of this blog are a treasure trove; perhaps reading them might offer a true representation of my thoughts re many topics, in addition to those re Google/GOOG.