The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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Location: Summerlin, Nevada, United States

A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

13 June 2006

Down the drain

"...this decline appears set to worsen before it improves."

I stated the above in "Bowel Movements" but said much the same thing in "Circling the drain" -- each an update of my recommendations from early-May to retreat in haste. Even the "budding setup" was steamrolled by this market decline. This is about as ugly as it gets in the way of setups, but not as low as the decline itself will probe. For example, the SnP 500, now ~1225, could probe 1000. Ouch.

All the former leaders -- oil, metals (inc gold, silver, and uranium), late-cyclicals, etc -- are especially taking it on the chin. What a knock-out blow has been dealt them! But as I warned in early-May, the decline for these groups and the market is not "sudden"; it was telegraphed by the subtle clues, even as the market "broke out" to recovery highs.

So the attempt to build a speed bump to slow this market's descent has failed. What does it tell you when a market is worse than you feared? What does it tell you when markets around the globe plummet in unison? Just how low is low?

Continue to be wary of the market's many upside feints, as warned. Or as I stated previously, do not allow the market to sucker you in, or instead be sucker-punched by the market.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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