Hitting the barn door
How could Google/GOOG miss its earnings forecasts by such a wide margin...? And what about the stock...? First (via Seeking Alpha),
But what of the stock? This seemingly substantial price decline in reaction to the earnings news is how it goes for growth stocks, the great ones included; this type of occurrence can be expected. (And was.) After trading down by more than $45 (to ~$502), the shares quietly rebound to a last trade of ~$515, as investors recognize this decline to be a buying opportunity for those with a long term horizon. I know that I, too, will purchase more shares at a safe harbor price. I will do so because at $500/share (rounded down) and including yesterday's reported earnings, the stock sells at 26x earnings; an incredibly cheap price and value that will not linger for long. Although I am loathe to place a time frame on it, my guess would be that by the time of the Q3 report, certainly the Q4 report, Google/GOOG will again be stretching its grasp into new high territory.
Full Disclosure: Long the shares of Google/GOOG, and about to get more long.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist
"Google shares were down 8% in pre-opening trading, after the company said second-quarter earnings fell just short of analyst estimates, while profit margins missed expectations by over four basis points. Net income jumped over 28% to $925.1 million ($2.93/share), up from $721.1 million ($2.33) a year ago, while revenue surged 63% to $2.72 billion. Excluding stock options costs EPS were $3.56, shy of analyst consensus estimates of $3.59/share, while revenues were slightly ahead of analyst calls of $2.68 billion. In a note to clients, Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney said Google's negative margin trends were the key issue. Pro-forma operating income was about $1.35 billion (50% margin) vs. estimates of $1.45B (54.4%). Year-over-year, its margins have dropped five basis points. In 10 of its 11 previous quarters as a publicly-traded company, Google has beaten estimates."The truth is that Google missed expectations by a 'whopping' 3¢/share -- more if you factor in the whisper numbers; in either case, not a wide margin (3¢ on $3.50!) for a company whose earnings and revenue numbers (and growth) are this massive. Too, Google delivered 2Q07 revenue growth above expectations; however, this was offset by much higher spending on employment gains and change in bonus accrual, which could have cost $0.10-0.15 in earnings/share.
But what of the stock? This seemingly substantial price decline in reaction to the earnings news is how it goes for growth stocks, the great ones included; this type of occurrence can be expected. (And was.) After trading down by more than $45 (to ~$502), the shares quietly rebound to a last trade of ~$515, as investors recognize this decline to be a buying opportunity for those with a long term horizon. I know that I, too, will purchase more shares at a safe harbor price. I will do so because at $500/share (rounded down) and including yesterday's reported earnings, the stock sells at 26x earnings; an incredibly cheap price and value that will not linger for long. Although I am loathe to place a time frame on it, my guess would be that by the time of the Q3 report, certainly the Q4 report, Google/GOOG will again be stretching its grasp into new high territory.
Full Disclosure: Long the shares of Google/GOOG, and about to get more long.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist
Labels: Company analyses, Market analyses
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