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The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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Location: Summerlin, Nevada, United States

A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

08 February 2005

FLIR Systems

"Flir Systems/FLIR caught our attention for a number of reasons recently, but has maintained a positive overall trend and good long-term Relative Strength since 2001. More recently, however, the stock reversed a few lower tops on its chart with an upside breakout at $31 back in December, and then formed a higher bottom on Monday (yesterday) to setup a second potential breakout. In combination with this latest reversal up on the chart was the weekly momentum table flipping positive on Friday and the 1/2 pt chart breaking out of a bullish triangle formation at $31.50.

"Overall, there is plenty of evidence that demand has taken control of the near-term picture and longer-term the trend is still positive and the upside price objective is $43. Ok to buy FLIR in the 30-32 area with a trading stop at $28, which would be a near-term sell signal on both the default and 1/2 pt charts. FLIR is a 3 for 5'er, and the Electronics sector [itself] is favored."


All content above this caption (c) Dorsey Wright

As many of you know already, I have been banging the drums for Flir Systems/FLIR for ~3 years now. And most recently over the course of the past 5-6 weeks I repeatedly have stated the shares near a breakout of the 6 month base it has built. This opportunity (FLIR) is a specific example of how you (as trader or investor) align your interests with those of the markets; i.e., buy the short term breakout from an intermediate term base within a long term uptrend. And within one of the periodicities (short, intermediate, and long term) is your investing time frame.

For FLIR shares, the next breakout (for those who prefer certainty with their morning coffee) would occur at ~$32, basis the close with explosive volume. BTW, this level is approximate because it occurs from a line of declining tops that is lower with each passing day.

As a position trader, I love opportunities such as this one: ~$4 of risk (a $32 purchase with a $28 stop) vs ~$12 of reward (~$32 purchase and a $43-44 objective), or a 3:1 ratio. And either likely achieved within the short term (days to weeks).

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