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The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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Location: Summerlin, Nevada, United States

A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

09 August 2005

Sudden volatility...

... nonetheless, it arrives right on schedule. Apple Computer/AAPL is 5 months and 3 weeks into a typical 6-month intermediate term base. A good time for a breakout to occur from this base would be between now and the end of next week, if this pattern resolves itself successfully to the upside.

Note the sudden price volatility in the chart below (areas 1) with an explosion of volume (areas 2)...

[click to enlarge]

However, that volume, as expansive as it is on the 1 minute chart (above) lacks sufficiency even to appear on the daily chart (#2, in the chart below)...

[click to enlarge]

Area 3 is the small base necessary to accumulate sufficient strength to punch through critical triple resistance at ~$44.40. Area 1 is today's action so far. (Well, it was when I made this chart 20-30 minutes ago!) I note that, at this moment (~8am pdt), Apple/AAPL shares already have traded ~20% of average daily volume. It appears to me an upside breakout looms on the horizon. It is so near, in fact, that an investor no longer requires a telescope to get it within view.

Of course, my vision -- bad as it is -- has been quite alone. I wonder when the Apple/AAPL bears might capitulate? (Probably above $60. ;-)

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