Back aboard

With this post, Chad Brand swings back to my side of the investment thesis re Google/GOOG, bullish. Note his 5 points: that Yahoo/YHOO loses to Google/GOOG on seemingly every measure. Chad's final point is especially telling, as Chad now believes Google/GOOG shares are cheap relative to Yahoo/YHOO and relative to itself (Google's own earnings growth).

Does his final thesis sound familiar? It should; I have argued precisely that point since before Google/GOOG's IPO. That there would be bouts of share price under-performance (a loss of share price momentum), as the E would have need to catch up with the P. Chartists term this sideways price action a "base." So while many "investors" buy and sell during Google/GOOG's 18 month (and counting) high level consolidation, you have stood your investment ground. Whatever the immediate price reaction to tomorrow's earnings report, the base remains. (Barring a breach beneath crucial support at $450-430, which appears increasingly unlikely.)

I have shown the subtle clues (most recently, here) that reveal an increasing number of "investors" scramble to climb back aboard this particular investment ride; it is this (their) buying that will give final shape to this base, and when at last the marginal buyer buys, the breakout will occur.

Of course, we welcome them all.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist