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The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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Location: Summerlin, Nevada, United States

A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

23 March 2005

Straight down

The markets have endured a seriously hellacious ride since I posted this warning. (Only the day before, the markets had traded at fresh recovery highs!) To update: during the past two weeks, equities have made a beeline straight down to lower prices, bond prices have plummeted (and interest rates have soared), and the price for oil has nudged higher. The US$, however, is in the process of possibly reversing its 3-years long trend, from down to up. (Not yet, however; a confirmed reversal requires a price rally above ~86 on the DXC.)

As I had suggested, inter-market dynamics were changing -- quickly -- and the mounting risk would manifest as sharply lower prices. Which is precisely what we have seen.

The snippet that follows is from Tim Villano's Trader's Focus comments made this morning...
"The bottom line on the stock market is that the new daily reaction highs and rally to (SPX 1230) in early March represented a clear selling opportunity. With all tech indices in a negative divergent position, the Commercial stock index Futures traders lined up against the tape, and eventually the (SPX 1193) mark giving way, the stock market simply remains in a breakdown mode...."

I will update my general market thoughts (as opposed to specific opportunities, of which there remains an abundance!) this weekend.

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