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The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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Location: Summerlin, Nevada, United States

A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

25 May 2005

Google/GOOG - stretched valuation...?

In a series of comments, Ron questions buying Google/GOOG at current prices and valuation. Harry Wilker, a regular visitor to the Deipnosophist's table, has this to say re Google's valuation...
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The funny thing about GOOG is that by some measures it is actually cheap relative to it's peers, eBay/EBAY and Yahoo/YHOO. Here are some numbers; (using Yahoo Finance figures):


Current Year's PE:
GOOG - 50.54
EBAY - 48.16
YHOO - 63.63

Next Year's PE:
GOOG - 39.7
EBAY - 37.6
YHOO - 49.68

On such measures as these, the three stocks are about equally valued. GOOG, however, is growing much faster than either EBAY or YHOO.

Year over Year growth in sales::
GOOG - 41.4%
EBAY - 27.1%
YHOO - 26.9%

So, applying the widely used ratio of EPS to growth rate (Growth Rate *100/EPS) you get:
GOOG - 1.22
EBAY - 1.78
YHOO - 2.37

Clearly on this basis the nod (for best value) goes to GOOG by a mile. And this ignores the fact that GOOG is considered much more likely to exceed their estimates by a wide margin than either EBAY or YHOO.

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I will have more to say about Google/GOOG's valuation, and other matters, in my coming mega-post about Google, Googleplex.

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