The Homebuilders

The homebuilders, as a group, have been one of the market's upside leaders the past 3-4 years. The clues now mount that a significant reversal was made 2 weeks ago today (17 June). Based solely on my perception of the individual charts, I believe many, if not all, of these stocks are in for drubbings of 30-50% from the respective high trade of each. The leaders of the group would decline ~30%, the laggards by 50% or more.

This directional price expectation is not a Fibonacci retracement. I base it on:
1) The relationship of price to the moving averages;
2) The relationship of the moving averages to themselves, null of price;
3) The appearance of the high trade 2 weeks ago has the hallmarks of a critical reversal...
4) Having achieved maximum rate of change
5) The appearance (pattern and set-up) of the basis weekly charts
6) The top that is finally built will suggest the depth of the coming decline.

I intend hese comments as education, but they also are actionable. Such powerful momentum as this group has enjoyed will require some time to convert the true believers. Thus, each stock could levitate for weeks yet before the carnage begins. Of course, the recent action could prove to be a short term base (although it doesn't look like it), in which case I reserve the right to acknowledge the error of my ways, and go long.