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The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

07 July 2005

Rush-hour attack on London

Jul 7th 2005
From The Economist Global Agenda


Bombs have exploded across central London, at several points on the metro system and on at least one bus, as Britain hosts the Group of Eight summit in Scotland. Details are unclear but it looks disturbingly like a repeat of 2004’s horrific Madrid train bombings

THERE have been plenty of warnings that London might be the target of a big terror attack—and indeed, from the second world war Blitz to the IRA bombing campaign of the 1970s-1990s, Londoners have long been used to living with the risk of attack. But no amount of preparedness could reduce the shock of the chain of explosions—apparently caused by bombs—that hit the British capital’s transport system during the morning rush on Thursday July 7th.

So far all that seems certain is that there were explosions, all around 9am local time, at several metro stations and on board at least one, possibly more, buses in the city centre. The home secretary (interior minister), Charles Clarke, said there had been “terrible casualties” in the attacks—but it is too early to say how many have been killed or injured.

Mr Clarke told the House of Commons that so far four explosions had been confirmed: one in a tunnel between Aldgate East and Liverpool Street metro stations; one in a tunnel between Russell Square and King's Cross stations; one in a metro train at Edgware Road station; and the fourth on a bus in Woburn Place. Several other parts of central London were also cordoned off. The entire metro system was suspended, as were bus services in the city centre, while overground rail services were being stopped short of the capital. All hospitals in London were put on high alert. The public were urged not to try to travel into central London at all for the time being.

The explosions came as Tony Blair, the British prime minister, was hosting the summit of Group of Eight leaders at Gleneagles in Scotland—and the day after London was chosen to host the 2012 Olympic games. Coincidence? Or were the attacks timed to send a message to Mr Blair and the other leaders of the world’s main powers? Mr Blair came out of his meetings to confirm that the London explosions did appear to be a “series of terrorist attacks” and that the G8 leaders had affirmed that they “share our complete resolution to defeat this terrorism”. Security was stepped up on public-transport systems in Washington, DC and other G8 capitals as news of the London attacks reached them.

The attack on London bears disturbing similarities to the series of bombs set off on commuter trains in Madrid in March 2004, killing almost 200 people and injuring around 1,500. The seven suspected Islamist bombers, mainly Moroccans, blew themselves up in a confrontation with the police soon after. Speaking to Sky television, London’s police chief, Sir Ian Blair, said he feared the explosions in the city did bear signs of a “concerted attack”. Sir Ian said he knew of no advance warning being given of the attacks.

It may be some time before it becomes clear—if it ever does—who was responsible for the bombings. Suspicions are bound to fall on al-Qaeda or its militant Islamist sympathisers. It is not impossible that some anti-capitalist or anti-globalisation group caused the explosions, timing them to coincide with the G8 meeting, but a high level of organisation would be required to make the devices and set them off in such an apparently co-ordinated manner. The IRA has been on ceasefire since 1997 and seems unlikely to have been involved; nor is it likely that one of its splinter groups was responsible. In the immediate wake of the Madrid bombs, Spain’s then conservative government was swept out of power in an election, amid public anger at how it had tried to plant the blame, wrongly, on ETA, the Basque separatist group. Given this precedent, Mr Blair and his government are likely to be highly cautious about attributing responsibility for the London bombs until there is clear evidence.

Earlier this year, Mr Blair’s government struggled to push through Parliament a terrorism law containing strong powers for the state to impose “control orders” restraining the liberties of terror suspects, even in the absence of sufficient evidence to bring charges. This followed a ruling by the Law Lords, Britain’s most senior court, striking down a measure in an earlier terrorism bill that had allowed the government to detain suspects indefinitely.

While Britain’s security services have strong anti-terror powers and London has among the world’s best contingency plans for coping with such serious incidents, its transport system, like any other big city’s, is highly vulnerable. It is almost impossible to prevent determined bombers bringing explosive devices on to trains and buses, and no amount of planning or security measures will eliminate such a risk entirely. Londoners understand this and they—and the security services—have known that it was only a matter of time before something terrible like this happened.

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