Saponaceous film
Despite my effort to scrub clean my prose of content that might sow confusion, confusion continues its reign. Consider Google/GOOG. Because the manner in which Google/GOOG now trades is something I had expected, I began to warn ~2 months ago about the excessive enthusiasm and euphoria that then had taken root and was quickly metastasizing. Some readers even perceived me as a bear. Imagine that! Now I receive emails such as this one...
"Boy oh boy, have the winds been pulled from Google's sails or what? Well, I know how you feel about the stock long-term - buy and hold. The effects of the last few weeks are a blip on a larger canvas. Too bad, though, that it's getting pushed down. What of it? Nothing much. I have profits and I believe what you say is true about the company and the stock, therefore, if one has already bought the stock it would be best to hold it for the long term. Still, it's amazing to me how it's been "deflated" lately - in spite of so much good news about the company. It seems the markets have focused only on what it deems negative - thus, the selloff and the continual drop in stock price. What a shame."
Yes, but not all the news is good. For example, the manner in which the company has handled the CNET affair is repulsive. And of course the ongoing pissing contest it engages with Yahoo/YHOO and Microsoft/MSFT quickly grows tiresome.
Moreover, this is how stocks trade. Stocks can be perceived as living organisms. They breathe just as do people -- inhale, exhale. And yet remain alive even when they exhale, or breathe out the oxygen of life. Right now (past two months, next 2 months or thereabouts) is such a moment of exhalation for Google/GOOG. Yes, it seems possible that it could decline to ~$265, perhaps even to as deep as ~$240. But such declines are what make for long term investment opportunities.
Unless a bus runs over me and interrupts my breathing, then trust that I will be here -- posting throughout the decline, alerting you to reversal and low risk buy points. In fact, I expect two such data points -- the first reversal, and its subsequent test.
If you truly perceive your portfolio position as an investment (as I do mine), then opportunities such as these are manna from heaven. Albeit not yet! Remember, however, to have available the cash and attention. When the professional investor expects specific oscillations to occur, he or she never allows his own emotional vacillations to enter the fray, and thus muddy the picture.
"Boy oh boy, have the winds been pulled from Google's sails or what? Well, I know how you feel about the stock long-term - buy and hold. The effects of the last few weeks are a blip on a larger canvas. Too bad, though, that it's getting pushed down. What of it? Nothing much. I have profits and I believe what you say is true about the company and the stock, therefore, if one has already bought the stock it would be best to hold it for the long term. Still, it's amazing to me how it's been "deflated" lately - in spite of so much good news about the company. It seems the markets have focused only on what it deems negative - thus, the selloff and the continual drop in stock price. What a shame."
Yes, but not all the news is good. For example, the manner in which the company has handled the CNET affair is repulsive. And of course the ongoing pissing contest it engages with Yahoo/YHOO and Microsoft/MSFT quickly grows tiresome.
Moreover, this is how stocks trade. Stocks can be perceived as living organisms. They breathe just as do people -- inhale, exhale. And yet remain alive even when they exhale, or breathe out the oxygen of life. Right now (past two months, next 2 months or thereabouts) is such a moment of exhalation for Google/GOOG. Yes, it seems possible that it could decline to ~$265, perhaps even to as deep as ~$240. But such declines are what make for long term investment opportunities.
Unless a bus runs over me and interrupts my breathing, then trust that I will be here -- posting throughout the decline, alerting you to reversal and low risk buy points. In fact, I expect two such data points -- the first reversal, and its subsequent test.
If you truly perceive your portfolio position as an investment (as I do mine), then opportunities such as these are manna from heaven. Albeit not yet! Remember, however, to have available the cash and attention. When the professional investor expects specific oscillations to occur, he or she never allows his own emotional vacillations to enter the fray, and thus muddy the picture.
posted by David M Gordon | 9:47 AM
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