Trader's Focus - Tim Villano
Tim Villano is a technical analyst's technical analyst; by this I mean other technical analysts sit up and take notice when Tim speaks. Including me.
Although our time frames are dissimilar -- Tim is more of a swing trader, whereas I am what is typically considered a position trader -- I nonetheless especially appreciate his daily commentary and always factor it into my market perceptions. Such as the one below. You would be hard-pressed to find a better advisory service. (See link below, and in the sidebar.)
The Trader's Focus
A research summary of Lakeville Research, Inc.
P.O. Box 688 Lakeville, CT 06039 - tel. (860) 499-8063
Friday, December 2, 2005
After 3 days of consolidation/correction and the reversion to neutral levels of some key indicators, the stock market pushed higher yesterday on healthy internals. Market breadth and advancing volume were strongly positive, suggesting that the rally phase which began on October 28 is still intact. As stated for the past few weeks, there is still a data-based argument for further highs into the middle of December, which could hold-up or extend into the year-end.
While NYSE and NASDAQ volume rose to a multi-week high yesterday, SPY volume came in at its highest levels in 6 sessions. In the past two notes we have mentioned that institutional SPY traders had been largely absent during the recent market pullback, returning to continue to press the buy-side yesterday and helping to keep the price/volume ratio constructive for the overall stock market.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX +20.27 501.91) broke above August 2 highs, which could be part of a completion move extending into the year-end. In recent conference calls we have discussed the possibility for an Index extension to (SOX 490-500). It would be no surprise, given the strong market phase and positive liquidity dynamics, to see the SOX rise to the (520-533) range into mid-December or the year-end. In other words and despite the fact that the SOX is moving in a 5th daily wave to the upside, we still do not see the index as a sale.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX +31.72 1704.28) also made new yearly highs, and there is a technical case for extension to the upper-end of the daily trend channel (NDX 1730-1740) in mid-December and perhaps the year-end. The charge toward technology should not be a great surprise to clients as this is the reliable historical result of the drop off in NASDAQ volume seen during Q'3.
Treasuries moved into a neutral position ahead of today's data via the violation of an intraday downside pivot in the Ten-Year Notes Futures. There may be some impact from money flows away from Treasuries and toward the stock market as part of the year-end melt-up.
Finally, this week's trading pattern appears to conform, once again, to the notion of peaking and correction into Thursday followed by another step-up.
I will update the intraday stock index Futures and Global markets on this morning's conference call at 8:45 EST.
Although our time frames are dissimilar -- Tim is more of a swing trader, whereas I am what is typically considered a position trader -- I nonetheless especially appreciate his daily commentary and always factor it into my market perceptions. Such as the one below. You would be hard-pressed to find a better advisory service. (See link below, and in the sidebar.)
The Trader's Focus
A research summary of Lakeville Research, Inc.
P.O. Box 688 Lakeville, CT 06039 - tel. (860) 499-8063
Friday, December 2, 2005
After 3 days of consolidation/correction and the reversion to neutral levels of some key indicators, the stock market pushed higher yesterday on healthy internals. Market breadth and advancing volume were strongly positive, suggesting that the rally phase which began on October 28 is still intact. As stated for the past few weeks, there is still a data-based argument for further highs into the middle of December, which could hold-up or extend into the year-end.
While NYSE and NASDAQ volume rose to a multi-week high yesterday, SPY volume came in at its highest levels in 6 sessions. In the past two notes we have mentioned that institutional SPY traders had been largely absent during the recent market pullback, returning to continue to press the buy-side yesterday and helping to keep the price/volume ratio constructive for the overall stock market.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX +20.27 501.91) broke above August 2 highs, which could be part of a completion move extending into the year-end. In recent conference calls we have discussed the possibility for an Index extension to (SOX 490-500). It would be no surprise, given the strong market phase and positive liquidity dynamics, to see the SOX rise to the (520-533) range into mid-December or the year-end. In other words and despite the fact that the SOX is moving in a 5th daily wave to the upside, we still do not see the index as a sale.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX +31.72 1704.28) also made new yearly highs, and there is a technical case for extension to the upper-end of the daily trend channel (NDX 1730-1740) in mid-December and perhaps the year-end. The charge toward technology should not be a great surprise to clients as this is the reliable historical result of the drop off in NASDAQ volume seen during Q'3.
Treasuries moved into a neutral position ahead of today's data via the violation of an intraday downside pivot in the Ten-Year Notes Futures. There may be some impact from money flows away from Treasuries and toward the stock market as part of the year-end melt-up.
Finally, this week's trading pattern appears to conform, once again, to the notion of peaking and correction into Thursday followed by another step-up.
I will update the intraday stock index Futures and Global markets on this morning's conference call at 8:45 EST.
posted by David M Gordon | 3:13 AM
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