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The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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Location: Summerlin, Nevada, United States

A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

25 March 2005

Post mortem

Flir Systems/FLIR was a beautiful pattern, despoiled only yesterday. There are, however, some items (among many) that we should note...

1) In the ideal setup, three higher highs would follow the successful breakout; FLIR unfortunately had only one (arguably two),
2) The handle part of this pattern should not exceed 3 weeks. When the shares arrived at that point (yesterday) with no signs of a bounce, traders gave up and sold, thus causing the shares to break down beneath the 50 day sma,
3) FLIR subsequently plummeted to critical support at its 200 day sma and a long term trend line.
4) The high volume yesterday plus holding at double support could mean the shares will arrest their decline at this level.

Will yesterday's high volume and drop to the double support end this short term decline? Time will tell, but when examined with how others in this same group have recently traded (e.g., Armor Holdings/AH and Ceradyne/CRDN), it is a wonder FLIR held up as long, and as well, as it has. Whoever said the markets are not a continuous source of surprise?

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