The Next Big Thing
The Financial Times gathered together Bill Gurley and Richard Waters for a discussion on the next big thing for the Internet. The conversation that results makes for fascinating reading.
"I’m firmly in the “brave new world” camp. True, broadband has been coming for years and we’ve been hearing about wireless internet access for so long it’s getting tedious (I remember chairing an FT wireless conference in London five years ago and hearing several speakers claim that we would soon all be carrying handsets with location-sensing technology that would pick up details of special offers in stores as we walked past: someone pitched the same idea to me last week. It sounds as daft now as it did then.)
"But a couple of things make this much more of a breakthrough moment. One is that penetration of broadband (define it how you like – I think it’s less about speed than being “always on”, so slow-motion US broadband counts in my book) – is reaching the point where it becomes the norm. Once a mass of people is connected to the web in “always on” mode, new forms of behaviour – in how you communicate, find information, whatever – take over. (Wireless will extend the “always on” experience, though I still think it’ll be mainly limited to communication like e-mail for some time.)
"The other thing is that, when you mix pervasive technologies like broadband with other, newer, more disruptive technologies, interesting things happen. WiFi is clearly the leading contender here. With broadband and WiFi in the home, behaviour starts to change and the impact of the technology is magnified. One and one add up to more than two. The equation becomes: Broadband + WiFi = Voice over IP all over the house, and the end of phone bills as we know them. This is powerful and disruptive stuff, and its impact has not been felt yet."
I am curious: what do you think is "the next big thing"...?
"I’m firmly in the “brave new world” camp. True, broadband has been coming for years and we’ve been hearing about wireless internet access for so long it’s getting tedious (I remember chairing an FT wireless conference in London five years ago and hearing several speakers claim that we would soon all be carrying handsets with location-sensing technology that would pick up details of special offers in stores as we walked past: someone pitched the same idea to me last week. It sounds as daft now as it did then.)
"But a couple of things make this much more of a breakthrough moment. One is that penetration of broadband (define it how you like – I think it’s less about speed than being “always on”, so slow-motion US broadband counts in my book) – is reaching the point where it becomes the norm. Once a mass of people is connected to the web in “always on” mode, new forms of behaviour – in how you communicate, find information, whatever – take over. (Wireless will extend the “always on” experience, though I still think it’ll be mainly limited to communication like e-mail for some time.)
"The other thing is that, when you mix pervasive technologies like broadband with other, newer, more disruptive technologies, interesting things happen. WiFi is clearly the leading contender here. With broadband and WiFi in the home, behaviour starts to change and the impact of the technology is magnified. One and one add up to more than two. The equation becomes: Broadband + WiFi = Voice over IP all over the house, and the end of phone bills as we know them. This is powerful and disruptive stuff, and its impact has not been felt yet."
I am curious: what do you think is "the next big thing"...?
posted by David M Gordon | 4:35 AM
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