The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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Location: Summerlin, Nevada, United States

A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

03 February 2006


... that even a broken clock can be correct two times each day, comes this comment...

"those picks (SIRF, SBUX, COH, CAKE, NUVA, etc.) have done great. thanks."
To which I could add others (AAPL, DBRN, GOOG, etc). The point is not to herald my successes, but to acknowledge, in advance, that each position -- taken or not taken, profit or loss -- can teach us something about the market, its mechanisms and processes, and about us each.

Price does not denote value, but it it does connote risk. The higher the price on a lengthening trajectory, the greater the risk. But that risk itself must be placed within the appropriate context: your time frame.

Who is it that sells Google/GOOG that should cause such a sudden and ferocious decline? Each constituency has primacy at any given moment, and this decline has traders (shortest time frame, in my denotation) written all over it. So they will also cause the subsequent bounce when it occurs. (Soon, at its current pace of decline.) But they will be joined by investors -- yes, by such as me -- who have patiently awaited the correct moment (low risk, high reward) to purchase more shares. An initial bounce could occur off support at ~$358, with more support at $330, as mentioned previously.

Does this decline trouble me? Only in that I would prefer it not have occurred, but knew it ultimately would.

Does the decline in other favored stocks or fledgling opportunities trouble me? No; today's action is nothing more than another bar (or candlestick) in the chart. Days, weeks, and months from now, we each will have forgotten the pain and grief this day, this bar, caused us, as we scan the charts backwards looking for our setups and patterns.

What was the question? :-)

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