Of meltdowns, meltups, and portfolio success
Yes, base. I realize most market commentators call repeatedly for a resumption of the bear market -- a plunge back to the lows, if not a sustained breakdown beneath those lows. But the bears have been wrong for 10 months now, as the market increasingly betrays its true direction, its winning hand.
Understand: Much of the selling that occurred during 2008, especially late-September through early-November, happened for many reasons, but its net result was a portfolio blowout: a forced liquidation in the frenzied quest to raise cash during a liquidity crisis. That melt-down, amid the twin crises of liquidity and (lack of) confidence, is followed today by a melt-up as a sense of normalcy returns; stocks oscillate on individual fundamentals, valuation, and/or technicals. And, of course, the swings of the general market.
Can you feel or sense it? The decline of Fall 2008 (Ha!) had become so emotional that our skin would horripilate at the mere thought of the markets -- and another disastrous down day. The market's resolute advance since then is one the bears repeatedly decry and declaim, as though the current up trend is, in and of itself, sufficient reason for the market to resume its decline, if not plummet. Perhaps, yes, typically -- price is risk -- but the markets traded atypically during the decline of 2008. And so one extreme begets another.
In essence, the market bounced off the lower boundary of its high level consolidation; moreover, I believe the market climbs its clichéd Wall of Worry. Bad economic and fundamental news no longer propagates a resumption of the selling pressure, and individual groups and sectors begin to rise to the fore as they rise to all time highs. In the process, these groups and sectors become the market's leaders. Can you see them (rise)?
1) Recognize that markets and individual stocks oscillate always;
2) Recognize those oscillations occur within trends -- up, down, or sideways;
3) The market averages and indices remain in their 12 years long high level consolidations;
5) Individual sectors begin to out-perform on the upside;
6) Individual groups begin to lead higher;
7) Individual stocks within those groups and sectors bifurcate into those that trade higher, or base;
8) Many of those stocks in bases within leading groups within leading sectors should break out (up) soon, and lead higher the general market.
All trends die eventually, but until this one does, I want to own the leading sectors, groups, stocks; the market's leaders. You do as well. Especially because the market provides every hint that its up trend is nowhere near complete.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist