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The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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Location: Summerlin, Nevada, United States

A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

12 April 2005

Where she stops...

Telewest Global/TLWT is a broadband communications and media group in the United Kingdom. The Company's business is divided into two segments: cable and content. The cable segment is further subdivided into a consumer sales division and a business sales division. The consumer sales division provides consumer television, telephony and Internet access services to residential customers. The Company's business sales division focuses on a range of voice, data and managed solutions services for businesses. The Company's content segment supplies basic television channels and related services to the United Kingdom pay-television broadcasting market. On July 13, 2004, the Company acquired substantially all of the assets of Telewest Communications and on July 15, 2004, upon completion became the holding company for the operating companies of Telewest Communications. Its homepage is http://www.telewest.co.uk/


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As shown in the chart (above), the shares broke out to a new all time high this past Thursday -- and seem particularly well set up for higher highs, perhaps as early as today's opening trades.

In a research comment released early this morning, the analyst at Morgan Stanley, "upgrades TLWT to Overweight from Equal Weight. We (this firm) believe the company will deliver consistent operating results over the next 2 years as it balances customer growth with margin improvement. We raise our price target to $23 (from $19) and EPS estimates for 2005-2007 to $4.12, $17.04 and $31.39. We further believe that TLWT can achieve its 1Q05 and long-term customer growth targets and, by keeping flat its SG&A, drive 7-9% EBITDA growth for 2005-06E."

Positive comments of this type should result with a likewise positive response from the shares, manifesting most likely as a gap higher on the opening. I already purchased one lot on Thursday and a second lot yesterday. I would like to buy more today. If TLWT shares do gap higher at the opening, then I will bide my time for the likely inevitable decline and subsequent intra-day base from the early-AM high, for another opportunity to purchase. As always, volume is critical: how many shares trade during the push to higher highs (in the assumed opening gap higher) vs. the number of shares traded during the assumed intra-day decline and base. And the number of shares traded en toto. Of course, the action of the general market will have something to say about all this.

This seeming inactivity (biding one's time) frustrates some investors and traders, albeit not me. I seek to profit from price oscillations, not gnash my teeth over them!

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