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The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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Location: Summerlin, Nevada, United States

A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

30 March 2005

More chickens...

Money in motion (MiM) is a founding principle of professional investors. As markets in general decline (as per recent experience), new leaders emerge as investors rotate from the former leaders to the new leaders.

This is not a zero-sum game, as evinced by the markets over the month of March 2005; those former positions typically are sold in toto whereas the new leaders are only nibbled. Thus the markets in general decline while the new leaders emerge. (Is that an echo?) This specific action manifests first as not declining with the general market, and when the portfolio blowout becomes extreme they emerge into new highs.

The chicken cyclicals are the new leaders. I have previously shared the retailers, and this post recommends the restaurants. Of course, several of these companies will be familiar as I have previously recommended them here...

If you have not already purchased the two companies below, despite my many recommendations to do so, then what do you wait for -- a ringing bell? A message from God?

Starbucks/SBUX has been the group leader, although it has held that status for a long time now. It is possible that it nears completion of another intermediate term base, although this pattern is too much caught in the pincers.

Panera/PNRA is indubitably the group's leader for the recent past. It has yet to find universal favor among institutional investors, unlike Starbucks; therefore, the shares likely have more room to the upside.

Darden/DRI is favored among institutional investors. Nonetheless, it too has plenty of room on the upside. (In fact, I just purchased more shares yesterday during its brief foray below $30.)

Red Robin/RRGB looks especially exciting because it has yet to emerge from its presumed intermediate term base. And as subscribers know, I love this particular pattern.

Can you find other possibilities? Please share...

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