The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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Location: Summerlin, Nevada, United States

A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

07 March 2006

California Housing Market

This forwarded message is from Scott Grannis, Chief Economist at Western Asset Management...

A colleague of mine put together the attached charts using data from Dataquick. Evidence of a top in housing sure is accumulating, but it's still not a slam-dunk. His comments:

"The California housing market has headed down in a big way since about Sep/Oct.

"The last page of charts are perhaps more interesting than first. They suggest that slowdown began in Central Valley first, which is ironic/resonant, since state housing speculation had spread to the CenVal in 2003 and 2004, when builders and speculators ran out of "low-cost" locales on coast.

"Anyway, CenVal home sales are off about 30% in last three months. Condo sales are plunging across the state, and prices on the coast MAY be beginning to ease off (sales volumes certainly are, although new home sales had remained strong up until last month or so)."

[click image to enlarge]

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