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The Deipnosophist

Where the science of investing becomes an art of living

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Location: Summerlin, Nevada, United States

A private investor for 20+ years, I manage private portfolios and write about investing. You can read my market musings on three different sites: 1) The Deipnosophist, dedicated to teaching the market's processes and mechanics; 2) Investment Poetry, a subscription site dedicated to real time investment recommendations; and 3) Seeking Alpha, a combination of the other two sites with a mix of reprints from this site and all-original content. See you here, there, or the other site!

29 September 2008

IQ, Brain Training, and Google

The notion that "increases in intelligence through training of working-memory" fascinates me; heck, it is the primary objective of this blog. With the writer's permission, I bring it to your attention. (See private message below.)

Perhaps it will tickle your fancy as well.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Hello, David.

I came to your blog via the May 11 post “Are books overrated?” (A provocative question.) In this post you mention the study by Susanne Jaeggi and Martin Buschkuehl in which they recorded increases in intelligence through training of working-memory.

I then bounced over to your profile and read the WSJ article about your continued confidence Google stock back in 2006, which prompted me to go check out Google stock and find that your confidence was well-founded; it performed just as you’d predicted. All very interesting.

After I read about the Jaeggi/Buschkuehl research I started a company to publish a commercial version of the training program. I was inspired by the idea that this finding could bring about real and important changes in people’s lives. The idea that intelligence can be trained is a great leveler. (And, having just quit the drudgery of corporate IT after 22 years, if anyone was going to do it, why shouldn’t it be me?) Five months on, the software is selling steadily, if slowly.

I thought you may be interested in this update on what happened to the research; the software website, if you are.

Best wishes,
MW

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26 September 2008

THIS is the Life!

Amy MacDonald's debut CD, This is the Life, simply astounds me. I like every single track (I can recall off-hand only one other CD in which I like every single song), and marvel over each aspect of her many talents: writer, lyricist, singer, composer, arranger, and band leader. Oh, and humble; Amy seems like an especially fine person.

But her talent wow's me. My difficulty was which song to select from her fine, fine CD to reinitiate the "Music to kick-start the weekend" series, so I did the sensible thing: I selected the title track...








This is the Life -- Amy MacDonald



An interesting review of Amy's CD ratifies my perspective, although I am very interested to read your comments.

Really, though, listen to the entire CD. Better yet, buy it, and enjoy one astounding moment after another. Thank you, Amy.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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The positive divergences continue to stack up

Yesterday, the market had a golden opportunity to breach crucial support on the glum news from General Electric/GE; notably, the market closed higher and at a positive closing level. As did GE.

Today, again, the market had another opportunity to suffer devastation on the news from Research in Motion/RIMM. (See post below from earlier today.) But already the market takes the ugly news in stride, as it continues to hold last Thursday's lows, and then some.

Dorsey Wright notes another positive divergence in a building bullish environment...
"The Small Cap area of the market moved back into Favored status in the DWA Dynamic Asset Level Investing (DALI) model. This is not surprising given the positive divergence we have seen from the S&P Smallcap 600 Index [SML] versus the S&P 500 Index [SPX]. In January the SML fell to 340 and the S&P 500 was at 1280. In July the market corrected again and SML also fell. However, this time the pullback brought it back to 344 yet the SPX was lower at 1220. Finally, the most recent correction in September took the SPX down to 1140, its lowest level this year, while the SML's correction didn't take it past the January lows with the SML only falling to 360. It is those asset classes, sectors, and stocks which make this type of higher bottoming pattern that turn out to be the leaders in the next market rally."


[click on chart to enlarge]

You know what I think...? Sooner or later, an increasing number of investors will recognize the market's change in character, and bid prices higher. You, fortunately, were apprised of this change even as the headlines screamed otherwise... and purchased.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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How quickly the (formerly) mighty decline!

Briefing.com reports...
Research In Motion/RIMM, maker of BlackBerry devices, posted solid second quarter revenue growth of 88% and net income growth of 72%. However, the company's results and outlook failed to live up to Wall Street's high expectations.

Shares of RIM are down 20% in premarket trading -- Wall Street tends to punish a stock with a premium valuation relative to peers that fails to live up to expectations.

For the second quarter, total revenue came in at $2.58 billion, compared to the consensus estimate of $2.60 billion. RIM earned $0.86 per diluted share, falling a penny short of estimates.The Waterloo, Ontario-based firm's third quarter outlook is what is causing most of the investor disappointment. The company forecasts revenue of between $2.95 billion and $3.10 billion, which tops the consensus estimate of $2.94 billion. However, earnings are expected to come in between $0.89 and $0.97 per share, which falls below the $0.98 per share consensus estimate. The lower-than-expected earnings forecast is due to the expectations of tighter margins in the third quarter, with the company citing sector specific trends -- Q3 margins are forecast at 47.0%, which is well below the 50.1% average analyst estimate and the 50.7% seen in the second quarter.

Including premarket losses, RIM is down 48% from its 52-week high.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
(begin dmg)
And so another former Core Opportunity bites the dust.

Although I believed the stock pointed to $75 when we sold back at ~$125, now that the stock has achieved that price level (and then some), the stock seems likely to decline even lower yet.

RIM finds itself in a heavily-hyped product transition, and has failed already to meet self-imposed deadlines for its new products. Moreover, this is an especially inauspicious moment (difficult consumer markets) to effect the transition, even if their competition (Apple/AAPL, Nokia/NOK, Samsung, et al) were not the formidable foes they are.

Full Disclosure: Sold all shares several months ago, and retain zero investment interest in RIMM.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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22 September 2008

Thank you

My objective with this blog always was to further your understanding of the markets' mechanisms and the process of investing: how they work, how not to be fearful, and how to profit. I view your questions as a quick and objective measure of your increased understanding; one reason why I seek your participation.

Which is why I appreciate your many messages on any topic, but, selfishly, especially re the future of this blog. You offer constructive criticisms, worthy and worthwhile suggestions, and gestures of support.
You humble me.

The Deipnosophist lives on, although some transformation(s) should be evident soon.

Thank you,
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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19 September 2008

Been there, done that!

Most of us have done it... "it" being googling yourself to see what comes up. And many of us visit, use, or have used, the online dating sites.

Well, now someone has done both. The result is this hilarious video by Erik Weiner. Warning, though: the video includes coarse language and graphic descriptions.


Don't know about you, but I sure am glad for a spot of humor after this week!
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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Really, was that so bad?

Over the course of the past week, week and a half, the markets have shot off a lot of fireworks; definitely, an impressive sight. This week alone, the market (DOW Industrials) was -500, +150, -500, and +500 -- for a whopping net loss of ~350 points, or ~3%. Despite the sound and the fury, the market likely will end the week just about where it began, if opening price indications hold and build into the close.

You see, yesterday proves to be a major reversal day. Not a "key reversal day," but crucial nonetheless. Yesterday's action occurred at the precise chart point (price, volume, and trend action) necessary, and when.

And so today's price indications point to an explosive upside on the opening. Upside price gaps predominate, and if you did not purchase when the buying was good, you will now pay the price... A much higher price, as now bullish price action becomes more obvious than the subtle clues and positive divergences.

Yes, 'tis awfully bold (of me) to have such certitude in the face of today's headlines, scary (financial) world and all, and on the flimsy evidence of one reversal day and an upside indication for the opening of the second (i.e., subsequent) day. Could this sudden bullish activity still fail? Sure, but the bad news is out, and professional investors now assume the parallax view, that amid the seeming chaos lies opportunity.
• In 1979, Mt St Helens exploded, and chaos reigned. Until a few investors realized that nature did all the work for the logging companies: uprooted 1000s of trees, flung them west, stripped them of their bark and branches, and dropped them in nearby waters (Puget Sound, etc). Suddenly they realized that Weyerhauser/WY and other loggers had just saved a fortune in labor and materials costs, and bid higher the share prices in frantic trading.
• In 1991, Mt Pinatubo exploded, and chaos reigned. Until a few investors understood that the volcanic ash would cast a pall (sorry!) over crop futures for many years, so they shrewdly purchased potato futures to hedge against the the Soviet Union's massive need. And
• the bear market of 2007/2008, stocks were sold indiscriminately, until professional traders adapted the parallax view: Forget about AIG, and buy Chubb/CB; forget about Lehman/LEH, and buy Wells Fargo/WFC. The scramble to buy caused the stocks to rise explosively, to all time highs. Please note the explosive upside gap indications in my Core Opportunities; so much for the dire predictions of $300 for Google/GOOG, which now sports a profoundly bullish price pattern to go with its positive divergences.

The market has yet to surmount many remaining hurdles that would change its short and intermediate term direction to up -- or make it more obvious to more market participants -- but the preponderance of the evidence now indicates the uncertain future of a market that climbs a wall of worry will prove to be. Few people, I know, have the needed perspective to see this unfold in real time, but the signs are there for all to see.

Full Disclosure: Long Google/GOOG, and happy.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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17 September 2008

End of the Road?

To my dismay, The Deipnosophist never garnered the audience I believe it deserves. I have pondered this reality for the past several months, and discussed the issue with friends and colleagues. This site's failure to achieve visibility, and its inability to ignite lively discussions on any topic, frustrates and disappoints me. Reluctantly but finally, though, I admit to the recognition that this blog likely will remain a static place where I pose my thoughts and a very few people come to read them. And even fewer comment.

This is not to fault any of my readers, nor to slight those of you who choose to comment, but a simple statement of fact. Many reasons could explain why this blog fails to gather a growing readership and engage its readers in topics financial, intellectual, and emotional, but among them is this possibility: the problem is me. My posts are laden with "big words," the "concepts too abstruse," the posts "too lengthy," my overall writing style "too robotic," etc, and so my posts... bore you.

Before I make my final decision re this blog's fate (and the secondary decision as to whether to leave the blog online and accessible), it is only appropriate to include you in the decision process... Please consider this post to be an invitation to offer your comments and suggestions re this blog, its future, etc.

And, should push come to shove, please know that I would miss you. Just as I would miss my public persona. Heck, the work and effort I invested just to sustain this blog could result in something new and different down the line.

"Ask the experienced rather than the learned. Only speak when your words are better than your silence." -- Arabic proverb

"Empty, and be full
Bend, and be straight
Have much, and be confused
Have little, and gain everything.
"

Be well. Invest well.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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Brief update re the markets

Yes, I realize the markets decline as they undergo severely serious tests of crucial support. But that support continues to hold, and an increasing number of divergences between seemingly negative price action and positive underpinnings indicate that the market's subtle improvement continues to take shape. At this point, the decline is more a matter of time than price; i.e., the general equity markets are close to their lows for this cycle as the budding bottom, now 2 months in process, continues to take shape. This (phase of the) market decline is closer to its ending than to its beginning; I suspect that this possible bottom is mere weeks, perhaps even days, from resolving its moment of crisis.

This notion comes about despite the overt, but obvious, ugliness of the general market's chart patterns. Of course, I recognize today's headlines are especially scary -- enough to frighten away even the staunchest investor. Please understand, if not accept, that (mainstream) journalism no longer is what it once was; the journalist today merely reports the momentous news of that particular moment, and fails to see the less obvious changes. We each, as investors, must do more than scan headlines and mere reportage to find truth: "Why do stocks decline?" is good for a start. Better would be "Why do most stocks not keep pace with the market's decline?" And therein lies a tale worth telling.

If you perceive as I do that this moment is an opportunity for long side investors, please recall this crucial investment rule applicable to moments such as now: Purchase the outliers only -- the stocks that have declined the least and the stocks that have declined the most. And ignore the great bulk of stocks that crowd the middle. But before you get all cute with your portfolio, this rule excludes Lehman/LEH and AIG, et al. You want to purchase the stocks of companies that you intend to own for a long time... and which will still be around then, leave alone tomorrow.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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14 September 2008

Far from the Madding Crowd

Chip, chip... chop, chop... saw, saw... c r a c k... "Timber!"... CRASH.

Sound familiar? Yes, you could be logging, but in this instance you are a participant in the investment markets, circa October 2007 to today. It ain't pretty; in fact, this market is downright ugly. While we each could point to a favorite epoch in the market environment that rhymes with today's abysmal markets, the one I rank as comparably difficult would be the 1970s.

Remember that market environment? The markets back then endured one whammy after another -- from two separate but related oil crises (1973 and 1979), runaway inflation, stagflation, the Death of Equities (thanks to the notorious Business Week cover article)... and so on, all the way to the death of America itself. Through it all, the markets, as measured by the DOW Industrials average, traded sideways for 16 years (1966 - 1982) from approximately 1000 to 600. The high trade during this epoch occurred at ~1072 (January 1972), the low trade at ~550 (December 1974) a whopping 50% decline from high to low. And then back again -- up, down; up, down; up, down -- for 16 long, l o n g, lonely years. The joke among investors during that epoch was that stocks were so toxic that an investor needed asbestos gloves just to touch them.

Note the 1966-1980 trading range (2 years prior to its breakout) in the chart below, the substantial 50% decline included (highlighted in yellow)...


Dow Industrials average: 1960 to 1980 (pre-1982 breakout)

View the chart below to place the entire 16 year trading range within context, its continuum...

[Dow Industrials: 1900 to today (9.15.2008)

... a 100+ years uptrend that includes -- and envelopes -- the abysmal bear market of 1972 thru 1974, the trading range of 1966 to 1982... even the Great Depression. In other words, what at first glance might appear to be stocks dropping off a cliff is nothing other than more of the same. Even Irving Fisher's ridiculed comment made during the initial phases of the 1929 decline, "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau" proved prescient when viewed from the perspective of the long term investor. Of course, to quote John Maynard Keynes, one of the all time great stock traders, "[F*** the long run.] In the long run we all are dead." By the way, please do not confuse the terms, "long term investor" and "buy & hold investor," which are neither synonomous nor interchangeable.

Not much has changed today from the 1970s, but then it never does. The more things change, the more they remain the same. Bull and bear markets come and go, but the bad news remains out there always, awaiting its time in the sun. Consider the following litany from today's market (with help from Briefing.com):
1) Fannie Mae/FNM and Freddie Mac/FRE got taken over by the government;
2) Lehman Brothers/LEH plummeted 77% and was thought by many to be doomed to fail if it wasn't acquired by another company;
3) AIG dropped 46% on concern it needs to raise capital;
4) The EU downgraded its economic growth forecast;
5) Retail sales were soft;
6) Auto manufacturers seek billions in government loans to help meet new fuel efficiency standards;
7) A major hurricane barreled through the Gulf of Mexico, shutting in production and posing a serious threat to a large number of refineries.
8) The US$ suddenly and startlingly (and enduringly?) powers higher, which fact changes the calculus on nearly every outstanding transaction. (No less the investment markets);
9) Final eight weeks of silly season -- er, the US Presidential campaign;
10) Geo-political instability;
11) the price of everything -- stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate -- declines. There is no refuge;
12) Etc, etc, ad infinitum.

And as I write this post on Sunday evening, the bleak news re AIG, Lehman/LEH, and Merrill Lynch/MER radiate outward from the epicenter; panic reigns as emergency weekend meetings occurred yesterday and today with the Federal Reserve Bank and the better capitalized, still standing banks such as JP Morgan/JPM. Venerable Merrill Lynch/MER suddenly is gone, acquired by Bank of America/BAC for the inconceivably small sum of $50 billion. Inconceivable, that is, until recent events and days. Lehman/LEH teeters on the brink of bankruptcy and collapse. AIG seeks a massive $40 billion 'bridge loan' from the Fed to hurdle over its sudden financing needs brought about by indiscriminite selling of its stock and swap spreads bid up to once unimagined levels. Which is so much spin; in fact, what the company struggles with today is the direct result of bad decisions made by former and current company executives. And to throw salt on an already-suppurating wound, stock market futures indicate a singularly ugly opening for Monday morning; current indications show the DOW Industrials down perhaps 300 or 400 points, with proportionately similar sized gaps for other market indices and averages. The Fed strives and struggles, but like Sisyphus, it just cannot push the boulder (of confidence) up and over the mountain of no confidence.

And yet, and yet... nothing in the charts says unequivocably that current market dynamics are anything other than a garden-variety, standard, typical bear market; a bear market that remains within the larger periodicity's trading range, which itself remains within the long term up trend. Just like the 1970s. If today's market trend were a monolithic bear market, then all stocks would crater concurrently. But such is decisively not the situation. Oh sure, 'good' stocks implode, while 'bad' stocks rise high and higher -- but that very action self-denotes as a non-monolithic market.

My definition for bear market is a declining price trend of (no fewer than) two lower highs and two lower lows. Perceived thusly, most investors can see quickly that the market averages and indices qualify today as bear markets; most stocks fare even worse. The average bear market endures for ~18 months... from old peak to matching high (amplitude, not magnitude); the current bear market now is ~10 months old, so it is long in the tooth. But it is more than that...
• Place the current bear market within its context, a decade long trading range bounded by S&P 500 1600 and 800 (so far; more years of sideways trading likely yet to endure);
• The current 10 month old decline is hellacious, because it comes from the high of the range, with more room for lower prices and yet would remain in the presumed base;
• Any extant, but old, trend has a tendency to reverse course during the first month of each quarter (January, April, July, October); typically during the second full week of that month; and best on Tuesday, aka Turnaround Tuesday. (A concept misappropriated by investors who do not understand its correct application.) UPDATED and INCLUDED: This confluence marks Tuesday, 15 July 2008 as a possible major turn up, at least for this phase of the decline. That is, the major portion of the price damage to most stocks has been accomplished, and now the continuing correction becomes more of time (its passage) than price. And many truly scary moments, such as this morning. Please remember to apply the lesson I shared previously; i.e., how tops and bottoms build in waves of 3...

The diligent investor always searchs for divergences; divergences of price, volume, trend, relative strength, etc. In a non-monolithic market, there are always leaders; something somewhere is always in a bull market. Long term, long investors seek and invest these opportunities. This post attempts to show you how to do that...
• The various market averages and indices became overweighted to the financial stocks, as their bull markets waged on. As those stocks declined (plummeted) in their bear markets, the market at large also declined;
• Include the groups and sectors exposed to the economy's cycles -- the cyclical stocks: banks, insurance companies, mortgage lenders, home builders, auto manufacturers, etc -- and the reasons for the market's 10 month decline become more obvious.

Now seek divergences...

• Note how the market's non-monolithic tendency asserts itself, as many banks look to have made hard bottoms;consider, for example, Bank of America/BAC:


A 2 year old decline (1) accelerated its pace of decline from October 2007 (2), before falling off a cliff in a meltdown that culminated in the 15 July 2008 hard low (3), and finally forms a bullish quarter-note pattern (4). Other bank stocks out-perform B of A/BAC, and other sectors also have hit tradable lows, possibly even investable bottoms, auto manufacturers (GM) included. The first positive divergence thus identified, the bear market's leaders (those stocks, groups, and sectors that led the market down) now act bullishly -- even as market commentators scream, "The sky is falling!" and market averages get pummeled seemingly day after day.

Buried beneath the blaring headlines are opportunities:

• Several sectors, including the previously mentioned health care and retailers (Surprise!) lead the market to the upside; e.g., long time favorite, Johnson & Johnson/JNJ (health care) and Urban Outfitters/URBN (retail) trade at, or near, recently established all time highs, after breakouts from intermediate term bases. This notable price action is both positive (obviously) and very bullish.

Despite the increasingly ubiquitous hysteria and panic, I remain optimistic. Before you label me a Pollyanna, please understand that I do not argue for unwitting investments. I view an investor to be that person who delves beneath the (screamingly) obvious to find the less apparent, more subtle truths... And, yes, to invest when everyone else rushes for the exits. However, you must know in advance of your investments:
1) Why you invest at all;
2) Why you invest in a specific opportunity;
3) At what price you will purchase a specific opportunity; and
4) At what price, or set of circumstances, you admit to being wrong... in your time frame.

Yes, we all prefer our portfolios would only rise in value -- but not before we complete our investment purchases. Other tell-tale clues, though, can betray (soon to occur) rising share price; for example, the inability to decline while the market declines broadly, deeply, and enduringly. When invested in the market's bullish leaders, we hang on; when identified but yet to invest, we purchase at opportune moments. Of course, we each define "opportune moments" in a manner that befits each investor's portfolio needs, tolerance for risk, and time frame. No size fits all because no two investors [needs and wants] are alike; some investors rely on company fundamentals, or measures of valuation, and some investors rely on charting or technical analysis. Unfortunately, the exclusive use of charting and other forms of technical analysis tends to be fool's gold because most investors do not really know the rules, and/or their correct application. Too, analyzing a stock's trend, and its placement within that trend, can betray when to purchase -- but rarely what.

Dorsey Wright offers some crucial insights and understanding...
"The inclination to take action, despite the probabilities, is prevalent in portfolio management. When you take action in a portfolio, is that action rooted in probabilities or is it taken to simply make yourself feel like you are doing something? There is a substantial amount of research on relative strength investing that highlights the superior returns that can be achieved over time by sticking to the rules of systematically holding on to the winners and cutting out the losers. Our research suggests that focusing on longer-term relative strength is much more rewarding than focusing on short-term (and high turnover) relative strength. As a result of focusing on longer-term relative strength, inactivity is often the order of the day. It can be uncomfortable to implement such a strategy because of the times when it is temporarily out of favor, but we believe that the rewards to sticking to the rules will put you in company with a select few premier performers over time." (Italics mine -- dmg)

The attempt by investors to marry the mirror realities of trading the recent out-performers and investing long term (i.e., wealthbuilding) in the desire for an always-increasing portfolio value is perilous at best. I consider the stocks of bad companies to rise for only a season or two, whereas the stocks of good companies decline for the same season or two. And those declines prove to be nothing other than a high level consolidation, as was the 16 year trading range (1966 - 1982). See again the chart above.

My (recomposed) Core Opportunities do not even come close to measuring up (er, down) to the bear market of the past 10 months, although Google/GOOG trades (traded) downright ugly. You could feel as though "The bear [market] has clawed you deeply...", if invested in Google/GOOG, but what were your reasons for its inclusion in your portfolio? Have those reasons changed because the stock trades up, sideways, and (lately) down? Please recall that I cautioned repeatedly Google/GOOG, from time to time, would trade in its own high level consolidation; this seems to be one of those times.

Markets take off (up) seemingly on a moment's notice, so long term investors purchase at opportune moments, not willy-nilly. A portfolio with no investments is no portfolio, just as an investor with no investments is no investor. And the lack of investments only causes investors of all stripes to scramble in the bid to catch up to prices that rocket higher -- without them aboard. The acquisition prices for these investors tend to be substantially dearer and the position size smaller than the ideal prices and lot sizes assigned in advance (of the move). In practice this means that true long term investors purchase during moments of fear and rapidly dropping prices -- an increasing level of uncertainty, which allows them to purchase the entire position at a favorable price... but also a scary price because the market seems to go nowhere but down, down, down. Things change. The shrewd investor knows how to identify, and always is mindful, of harbingers of change.

Investing is a waiting game: 80% frustration, 10% deflation, and 10% elation. But that 10% elation time pays off big time, and amply rewards our patience (frustration). But only, crucially, if our chosen investments are the same the market wants but failed to know in advance. Which means other investors scramble to catch up via paying a rapidly escalating share price for partial positions. Meanwhile, we smile. And profit. And all that was required of us was the willingness to embrace uncertainty, a large measure of intestinal fortitude, and a whole lot of patience.

I have tried to explain many concepts in this post that are difficult to understand even when explained well; I might have failed in the attempt. Your questions and comments posted here could help achieve more, or better, clarity for all readers.

Full Disclosure: Long Google/GOOG and Johnson & Johnson/JNJ.

Good fortune to All,
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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10 September 2008

Introducing...

Over the years and decades, Scott Grannis has seen it all (ask him sometime about his first-hand knowledge of portfolio insurance!), which affords him a tremendous amount of experiential wisdom. During his near-30 years as Chief Economist at Western Asset Management, Scott shared his market comments, insights, and perceptions to a rarified audience. No secret that Scott came to be regarded as an economist's Economist.

But Scott really needs no introduction from me, as I have shared with you many of his private market commentaries. Now, and after much nudging from me, Scott (finally!) has begun his own blog, Calafia Beach Pundit.

I cannot recommend strongly enough that you place his blog on your daily reading list.

-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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08 September 2008

How the markets work

The Candid Camera video below, filmed perhaps 40 years ago, illustrates the influence that group behavior has on an individual; its humor remains as valid today, as then...


Yes, investing is all psychology.
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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05 September 2008

The bullet bitten

Okay, so I finally did it. "Did what?" you probably wonder.

I reformatted my hard drive... two separate times. My patience for all the woes I endured the past 7 months finally ran out last Friday. Immediately after the markets closed, I began the cumbersome and time-consuming process; from 1pm Friday afternoon until 1am Saturday morning, when I stopped due to bleary eyes. And then continued later on Saturday, and throughout the holiday weekend. But then disaster hit, and I had to do it all over again Tuesday night.


Anybody who has been through the process of refornatting a hard drive knows it for what it is, no picnic! But it is done, and my workstation finally seems stable -- although it is too soon to know conclusively.

Anyway, that is how I spent my holiday weekend, and past week. But now I am back, and see your comments and questions...

-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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02 September 2008

Introducing Google Chrome

Webcast Press Event for Launch of Google Chrome

WHO: Google Inc.
WHAT: Google hosts a webcast press briefing and demo -- announcing the launch of Google Chrome, a new open source browser intended to create a better web experience for users around the world. Google Chrome is launching in beta version in more than 40 languages.

We will host a press briefing today at 11:00 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT), where the team behind Chrome will be introducing the product and leading demos. There will be a Q&A immediately following the event.

For additional information, please see our post on the Google Blog at http://googleblog.blogspot.com.

WHEN: Tuesday, September 2, 2008 11:00 a.m. Pacific/2:00 p.m. Eastern

Webcast Details: Please visit one of the following websites:

Windows Media Player
Real Player

And how ironic is it that Google announces this game-changing product via Windows Media Player?
-- David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist

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